The accuracy of bookmakers' soccer predictions differs between pinnacle and secondary ecu leagues. Assuming that bookmakers try to minimize payoffs for the winners, their predictions' accuracy may be estimated through evaluating making a bet odds and real healthy consequences. Bettors can make earnings via analyzing the accuracy of the bookmakers' predictions for each league and specializing in leagues in which their performance is terrible. this article compares among the accuracy of soccer predictions made by way of bookmakers for top vs. secondary ecu leagues for the duration of 2008/09 and the first 1/2 of 2009/10 seasons.
facts AND techniques
To compare the accuracy of the bookmakers' predictions for pinnacle vs. secondary european leagues, the authors of this newsletter analyzed the fit consequences and common having a bet odds of 10 top and 10 secondary european football leagues from the subsequent international locations: Austria, Britain, Holland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Scotland, Spain and Turkey.
The predictions' accuracy was analyzed with the aid of evaluating between the bookies' smallest betting odds and the real healthy outcomes. in addition, the feasible earnings of a bettor who locations his stake at the bookies' favorites was calculated according to the common making a bet odds of greater than 20 bookmakers.
summary
After reading the information of bookmakers' soccer predictions, the conclusion become that their accuracy is higher for the top leagues in evaluation to the secondary ones. The soccer predictions percentage of fits efficiently predicted through bookmakers varies among 54% for the pinnacle leagues vs. 44% for the secondary leagues. The common viable 1x2 earnings of the bettor constitutes -3% vs. -13%. The common envisioned profit of a wager on total below/over 2.5 equals to -10% vs. -25%.
consequently, it is secure to conclude that the bookmakers' predictions must no longer be used as having a bet guidelines neither in making a bet for the top leagues nor for the secondary ones, because of the bad expected income for bettors.
-- The most effective profitable league a few of the european leagues from the countries indexed above become the Austrian Bundesliga (+10% 1x2 profit) with greater than 60% of correct match predictions. the primary purpose is this league is characterized by way of high domestic win information.
-- The most unprofitable most of the top leagues were the Scottish superior (-15% 1x2 income) and the German Bundesliga (-eight%).
-- The most unprofitable most of the secondary leagues have been the Belgium 2e klasse (-25%), the French Liga 2(-18%) and the Scottish department 1 (-15%).
-- There have been no worthwhile leagues some of the secondary ecu leagues.
-- The most large difference between the top and the secondary leagues become discovered for the Spanish Primera (+four%) and Segunda (-20%) Divisions.
therefore, secondary ecu leagues, particularly Belgium 2e klasse, French Liga 2 and Scottish division 1 are the maximum appealing for bettors, since the accuracy of the bookmakers' prediction for these leagues is poor, ensuing in excessive ability payoffs.
